Royal LePage forecasts that the price of a single-family detached home in Quebec’s recreational markets will rise 6.0% in 2025
The recreational real estate rush that defined the peak of the pandemic market has been over for some time. However, the high demand for property in Quebec’s recreational areas does not seem to have disappeared. Rising borrowing costs – which reached a two-decade high in 2023 – along with access to teleworking and improved internet infrastructure, have prompted many households to seek out relatively less expensive places to live that are closer to outdoor activities in the province’s cottage market.
According to the Royal LePage® 2024 Winter Recreational Property Report,1 which analyzes the residential real estate markets around Quebec’s major ski areas, prices and transaction activity remained on the rise this year, despite the impact of higher mortgage rates in the first six months of the year. The first cut in the Bank of Canada’s key interest rate in June managed to give buyers some breathing room, while boosting sales of recreational properties.
The impact of economic conditions on the Quebec cottage market
“Despite uncertain economic conditions in 2024, Quebec’s recreational real estate markets have shown solid price appreciation, with increases ranging from moderate to strong, barring a few exceptions,” said Dominic St-Pierre, Executive Vice President, Business Development, Royal LePage. “Although a slowdown in activity and prices was anticipated due to high mortgage costs, real estate demand in winter resort regions persists and is keeping prices up, supported by population growth and urban sprawl.”
The higher interest rate environment in 2024 certainly made some buyers in the province’s recreational markets hesitate, as it did in urban markets, while many were hoping for more favourable mortgage conditions ahead. However, this did not have an impact on activity levels. According to the report, the number of single-family detached property transactions in the markets analyzed rose by 7.9% in the first nine months of 2024, compared to the same period last year. At the same time, condominium sales fell slightly by 1.1% year over year.
Prices rise near Quebec ski resorts in 2024
The median price of a single-family detached home rose 4.9% in the first nine months of the year, compared to the same period in 2023, to $521,300, reflecting a more timid appreciation than in the previous year. For condominiums, the median price fell 5.1% over the same period to $370,600.
Of the 10 ski areas surveyed, only two saw the median price of single-family homes decline. Prices for single-family homes around Mont Sutton (Sutton, Brome, Lac-Brome) fell by 17.9% year over year to $575,000. Real estate markets surrounding Le Massif de Charlevoix (Baie-Saint-Paul, Les Éboulements, Isle-aux-Coudres, Petite-Rivière-Saint-François, Saint-Hilarion, Saint-Urbain) also saw a decline in the first nine months of 2024, falling 17.9% year over year to $327,500.
As for condominiums, the opposite trend was observed. Of the five markets where this segment is sufficiently large, three showed a decline in median prices. Near the slopes of Mont-Tremblant, the median price of a condominium fell 13.1% year over year in the first nine months of 2024, to $391,000. In Bromont, there was a similar decline of 14.6%, with a median price of $474,200, while condominiums on the outskirts of Mont Sainte-Anne fell 12.5% over the same period, to $220,000.
Real estate forecasts for recreational properties in Quebec in 2025
While higher borrowing rates have failed to cool real estate demand in major resort markets, the Bank of Canada’s manoeuvres to stimulate the economy by cutting its key lending rate could have a snowball effect on activity around Quebec’s ski resorts and beyond.
“Following four consecutive cuts in the Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate, buyers in recreational property markets can resume their search, more confident that their situation will continue to improve,” said St-Pierre. “Although a steep increase in prices is not in the cards, we can easily imagine that 2025 will see property prices rise above 2024,” he continued.
According to Royal LePage, the price of a single-family detached home near the province’s top skiable peaks will continue to climb, rising 6.0% to $552,578 over the next 12 months. This forecast is based on the expectation that interest rates will continue to trend downwards in 2025.
