Quebec’s main urban markets should remain active next year, despite international political and economic uncertainty
Global economic tensions, the upcoming Canadian federal election, a new U.S. administration, and insufficient real estate inventories: the year 2025 promises to be full of challenges for the Quebec real estate market. Yet, despite these uncertainties, the outlook remains promising. Buoyed by falling mortgage rates and sustained demand, Quebec continues to stand out amongst other cities, with price appreciation forecast in all its major regions.
According to Royal LePage, the aggregate1 price of a home province-wide is expected to rise by 7.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, to reach $599,307, continuing the momentum seen this year. But it’s the regional variations that are attracting attention, including exceptional growth in the Quebec City region, where prices are expected to climb by 11.0%, the highest projected growth in the country.
“Resilience is what defined the Quebec real estate market in 2024,” said Dominic St-Pierre, executive vice president, business development, Royal LePage. “While some of the country’s largest markets experienced a period of price correction or stagnation, Quebec’s major urban markets continued to see significant property price growth in the face of still-present inventory shortages, with the Quebec City region leading the way. In our crystal ball for 2025, we see upward pressure on prices to continue, with a gradual return to long-term historical norms. Competition is expected to be particularly strong in the first half of the year, when we’ll see most of the price increases, paving the way for an early spring market.”
Royal LePage forecasts that the median price of a single-family detached home and condominium in the province will increase 8.0% and 6.0% to reach $672,516 and $474,350, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.2
Quebec City poised to stand out once again in the 2025 real estate market
Of the five markets included in the forecast, Quebec City should maintain its top ranking, with the aggregate home price expected to rise 11.0% to $442,113 in the final quarter of 2025. This is also the strongest price growth forecast among major regions in Canada.
“As the province’s capital city, the Quebec City region has typically maintained a trend of limited growth in property prices, with no major fluctuations. Now, the pandemic has reversed the trend, making this market a star in recent years, and particularly in 2024 when other regions were experiencing a slowdown in both activity and prices. With borrowing costs lower today and a still-too-large shortfall of available properties, we expect price pressure to be higher in 2025 in this region,” said St-Pierre.
Factors that will influence Quebec real estate demand in 2025
With geopolitical issues south of the border and in Canada, combined with persistent housing shortages and a growing number of measures to increase access to home ownership for first-time buyers, there are many factors that will shape the province’s real estate market in 2025.
In 2025, the Quebec real estate market will have to navigate through complex challenges, ranging from economic uncertainties related to Canada-U.S. relations and the federal election, to the management of a still insufficient inventory. Although falling interest rates are helping to restore consumer confidence, persistent housing shortages, exacerbated by moratoriums on new construction in several municipalities, will continue to keep upward pressure on prices. In addition, government measures such as longer mortgage amortizations and incentives for first-time buyers are aimed at improving affordability, but could also stimulate demand. Finally, an increase in immigration thresholds, while economically beneficial, will put additional pressure on infrastructure and the real estate market in large urban areas such as Montreal and Quebec City.
Highlights:
- In the Greater Montreal Area, the aggregate price of a home in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to increase by 6.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching $655,082.
- In Quebec City, the aggregate price of a home is expected to increase 11.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter in 2024, reaching $442,113.
- In Gatineau, the aggregate price of a home is expected to increase 6.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of 2024 to $483,996.
- In Sherbrooke, the aggregate price of a home is expected to increase 7.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of 2024, reaching $409,810.
- In Trois-Rivières, the aggregate price of a home is expected to increase 4.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of 2024, reaching $370,448.
